F1 World Drivers Championship

The Formula 1 season is off and running, and of course Sebastian Vettel comes in as the favourite for the World Drivers Championship. Personally, I think Vettel faces a much bigger challenge than he did last year, and I expect the WDC to be decided much later in the season. Lewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso, and Jenson Button each have a legitimate shot at the WDC this year, and we could be in for a very close battle. Lets hope so because F1 wasn’t nearly as exciting last year as it normally is.

Based on value, I really like Hamilton and Jenson Button for the World Drivers Championship. Alonso and Ferrari should be more competitive this season, and Jenson Button is always a threat. Lewis Hamilton recently became the 2nd-favourite in the WDC over Fernando Alonso, and I think this is a clear sign that public wagers are coming in now. Most of the public thinks that Hamilton is a significantly better driver than Button, but the numbers don’t support that. Not only is Button a past WDC champion, but his numbers with Mercedes-McLaren are extremely close to those of Hamilton.

2016 F1 Drivers Championship Odds

Top Drivers
Points

No U.S. Bettors

No U.S. Bettors
Lewis Hamilton: McLaren-Mercedes
45
1.66
1.72
Nico Rosberg: Mercedes AMG
43
3.00
3.75
Fernando Alonso: Ferrari
28
11.00
9.50
Daniel Ricciardo:
25
17.00
13.00
Jenson Button: McLaren-Mercedes
37
21.00
21.00
Sebastian Vettel: Red Bull Racing
36
26.00
21.00
Valtteri Bottas:
1
41.00
34.00
Danill Kvyat:
16
51.00
51.00
Felipe Massa: Ferrari
22
67.00
51.00
Kimi Raikkonen: Lotus
8
101.00
67.00
Max Verstappen: Ferrari
0
251.00
151.00

Many punters are jumping on the Kimi Raikkonen bandwagon right now, and I think this is a huge mistake. His WDC futures odds have come way down in recent weeks, now approaching the odds of Mark Webber. Raikkonen is driving a Lotus, a car that hasn’t proven it’s ready to beat RBR, Ferrari, and McLaren-Mercedes. Raikkonen is a great driver, but he isn’t Superman, and he can’t fly that Lotus past the finish line.

As long as Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber are driving the same cars, I can’t imagine Webber beating Vettel. Although RBR has been claiming that Webber will be a second #1 driver rather than a #2 driver, everyone knows that’s hogwash. Vettel is the young, reigning back-to-back WDC champion, and Webber hasn’t shown the ability to hang with his partner the last two seasons. I don’t see any way for Webber to win the WDC, so I don’t see any value in a futures bet on him.

Lewis Hamilton still has the balls and desire to win another World Drivers Championship, but he’ll have to cut down on his errors this season. If his McLaren-Mercedes is better this year, that should help him be more patient and give him a legitimate shot at the WDC. My problem with betting on Hamilton is his partner Jenson Button. Driving the same car with almost identical success as Hamilton, Button shows us a lot more value than Hamilton does. My suggestion is, if you like Hamilton this year, bet on Button and get 10.00 instead of 6.50 on Hamilton. If the McLaren-Mercedes cars are good enough to compete with RBR this year, Button has just as good of a shot at the WDC as Hamilton does, but considerably better odds.

Related Pages:

F1 World Constructors Championship Odds
Formula 1 Odds
F1 Betting

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