Saints vs. 49ers Betting Line
Home: San Francisco 49ers (13-3 overall, 7-1 at home)
Away: New Orleans Saints (13-3 overall, 5-3 on the road)
What: NFC Divisional Playoffs
When: Saturday, January 14, 2012. 4:30 pm ET
This NFC divisional playoff game is a matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the San Francisco 49ers, the #3 and #2 seeds in the conference respectively. Both finished the regular season 13-3, and on the surface it appears to be a battle between the Saints offense and 49ers defense. This is definitely one of the most interesting & exciting games of the weekend, and the closest spread of the weekend as well.
At the time this article is being written, the Saints are favored by 3.5 points on the road. While Tim Tebow and the Broncos vs Patriots game is getting most of the attention on radio and tv sports shows, don’t let this one fall under your radar. This might be the best game of the divisional playoffs, and we won’t want to miss it.
Saints vs. 49ers Betting Lines
The chart below shows the latest Saints vs. 49ers betting lines for the point spread, money line, and over/under from our favorite NFL betting sites. Each of these books will be offering dozens of props for this game as well.
Update: As of Saturday morning at 8:20am ET, the Saints-49ers point spread is finally starting to move. Interestingly, the Saints point spread went from -3.5 (-110) to -3.5 (-115) at BetOnline, while it’s gone the opposite direction at JustBet, from -3.5 (-110) to -3.5 (-105). It’s not a huge change, but it makes it harder to predict what will happen to the spread over the next few hours.
Of course this also means the 49ers spread has gotten better at BetOnline, now at +3.5 (-105). The Saints-49ers money line and over/under have yet to change today, but we’ll keep you posted as the betting lines change.
The 49ers-Saints money line and over/under haven’t changed much at all since they opened. The Saints money line has fluctuated between -195 and -200, while the 49ers money line has fluctuated between +170 and +175. The over/under opened at 47.5 and went down to 47 very early in the week. Since then, the over/under has been stuck where it is now.
As the 49ers vs. Saints lines change between now and game time, the chart above will continue to be manually updated. For the latest betting lines on all of the NFL games this weekend visit the Sports Betting Lines homepage.
Saints vs. 49ers Point Spread & Prediction
At the time of this writing, the Saints vs. 49ers point spread is 3.5 points, with the Saints coming in as the favorites. Can the 49ers defense contain the Saints offense enough to cover the spread? Can Alex Smith and the 49ers offense do enough to keep it close? Here are the best Saints vs. 49ers point spreads at the time this article is being written:
The New Orleans Saints averaged 34.2 points per game during the regular season, versus 23.8 for the Niners. The Saints gave up 21.2 points per game, while the 49ers were 2nd in the league, giving up a paltry 14.3 ppg. The 49ers rushing defense was the stingiest in the NFL, allowing just 77.3 yards per game. To put that number into perspective, the Baltimore Ravens ranked #2 in the NFL, and yet they gave up 92.6 yards per game.
While the Niners rushing defense is #1 in the NFL, their passing defense is another story. Their passing defense is average in yards per game, but a lot of people will say this doesn’t matter because it’s all about points allowed. When it comes to this particular matchup, I would disagree. The overall level of competition the 49ers played this year was weak. They played against a lot of weak offenses who couldn’t get it into the end-zone, a problem the Saints don’t have. The aggressive & well-rounded Saints offense will make it much harder on the 49ers than any other team they faced during the regular season.
At first glance, things look better for the San Francisco 49ers than they do after closer inspection. They had an impressive win (20-3) over Pittsburgh in week 15, they beat the NY Giants 27-20 in week 10, and they beat Detroit 25-19 in week 6. Other than that, none of their wins have been terribly impressive. They shut out the Rams in week 13, but it’s the Rams. They lost to Arizona in week 14, eeked by the Seahawks (19-17) in week 16, and lost 16-6 to the Ravens in week 12. Weeks 1, 5, 8, 9, 16 & 17 were wins against teams with a combined record of 22-56. Impressed? I’m not.
All the New Orleans Saints have done is win their last 9 games in a row, beating Atlanta twice, the NY Giants, Titans, and Detroit twice. They’ve scored 42-45 points in each of their last 4 games, including 45 against the Lions in the Wild Card round.
The Saints haven’t played anyone with a defense as good as the 49ers this year, but they have beaten some tough competition. This offense is on a roll right now, and I like how the Saints passing game matches up with the 49ers passing defense.
If the 49ers are going to win this game, it’ll have to come from turnovers. They rank #1 in the NFL with a +28 turnover ratio, which is insanely good. The Saints are -3 in this department, but it’s not as bad as it sounds. Considering how much they pass the ball, 14 INT’s on the season is quite good. They only fumbled 5 times during the regular season as well, so we aren’t talking about a turnover-prone team here. The reason the Saints are -3 on turnovers is because their defense is incredibly weak in this department.
As always, the San Francisco defense will be looking to cause turnovers. If they can finish the game +2 or better in this department, their offense should be able to keep it close. Alex Smith and the 49ers offense has done a good job this year, and the Saints passing D is weak. The Saints rushing defense is solid, but the 49ers will need a big day by Kendall Hunter and/or Frank Gore.
In the end, I see the New Orleans Saints winning this by at least 4 points, covering the current point spread. Their offense is too good, and as long as they don’t lose the turnover battle by 3+, I think their offense will get the job done.
Saints vs. 49ers point spread prediction: New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-110) at BetOnline.com.
SF 49ers vs. NO Saints Money Line
In case you’re new to betting on football, a money line is a straight-up bet on who will win the game, without the use of a point spread. If your team wins, you win. If they lose, you lose. Here are the best 49ers vs. Saints money lines at the time this article is being written:
Best Saints Money Line: -195 at BetOnline
Best 49ers Money Line: +170 at JustBet
New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees is too good, and too experienced to lose this game. New Orleans was 5-3 on the road this year, while the 49ers were 7-1. However, the Saints have been there/done that, and I think their offense is a good matchup against the passing defense of the Niners. The 49ers picked off 23 passes this year, but they did it against some crummy teams and QB’s.
The question is, are we getting value at -195 on the Saints money line? For us to be getting value, we basically need the Saints to win this two out of every three times. I’m not sure they win it that often, and with their potent offense I prefer going after the bigger win and giving up the points on the spread.
I wouldn’t argue with anyone who thinks +170 on the 49ers money line is showing value. Personally, I think the NO Saints experience gives them a much better chance to win a big game like this, but I admit that +170 on the 49ers money line is tempting.
Saints vs. 49ers Over/Under
Saints vs. 49ers Over/Under Prediction: Although the New Orleans Saints have scored 42+ in each of their last four games, we can’t expect anything like that against the SF 49ers defense. The Saints will get their points though, and I think they’re good for 27-30 total.
For the 49ers, it’s going to be interesting to see how they play offensively. It’s very possible they could come out running the ball like crazy, trying to eat up clock time and keep Drew Brees off the field. However, I think they’ll feel the pressure to put points on the board with every possession, and I think they’re good for 17-21 points (maybe as high as 24). The Saints only gave up 17.4 points per game in their last 5 regular season games, then 28 against Detroit in the Wild Card round. This puts us in a range of 44 to 51 points, making the Saints-49ers over/under a tough decision.
I think there’s more potential for defenses to get hurt in this game, so I’m going with the over. If the Saints can pull out a 10-14 point lead, the 49ers are likely to open up their game and get more aggressive. If they do, this is likely to translate into points on the board for the 49ers, or more possession time for Drew Brees. Either of those results are good for the over.
New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers Prop Bets
Although BetOnline and JustBet will be offering plenty of Saints & 49ers prop bets, the Bovada Sportsbook will likely have the largest selection. There are a number of team & player prop bets already available, and more will come by game time. They also offer live betting, which means that bettors can wager on hundreds of prop bets while the game is being played.
Saints vs. 49ers Prop Bets Currently Available at Bovada.lv
– Over/under on Drew Brees total passing yards: Over 335.5 (-130), Under 335.5 (Even).
– Over/under on Alex Smith total passing yards: Over 225.5 (-115), Under 225.5 (-115).
– Over/under on total receiving yards Marques Colston: 82.5 (-115) on either side.
– Over/under on Darren Sproles total yards (rushing, receiving, return): 170.5 (-115) on either side.
– Over/under on total rushing yards Frank Gore: 82.5 (-115) on either side.
– Over/under on total receiving yards Michael Crabtree: Over 62.5 (-125), Under 62.5 (-105).
– Which team will have more turnovers in the game? (-115) on either side.
– Will the 49ers allow a rushing TD in the game? Yes (-160), No (+130)
There are a ton of other NFL prop bets available at Bovada as well. There are more player & team props for this game, plus props like ‘how many road teams will win this weekend’ and ‘will any games go into overtime this weekend’.
Where to Bet on Saints vs. 49ers Game
To help our visitors find the best online sportsbook for betting on the Saints vs. 49ers game, we’ve put together this mini betting guide. Every sportsbook is a bit different, and the best place to bet will be largely determined by the types of bets you want to place. The ranking below are based on overall betting options, but they all have their pluses & minuses. We hope this helps.
1/ BetOnline.com – The best overall online sportsbook for US residents that want to bet on NFL final results, like point spread, money line, and over/under bets. They also have a nice selection of prop bets, but not as wide as Bovada. BetOnline posted their 49ers vs. Saints betting lines before most other bookies, like they do with every game. BetOnline also accepts the best selection of credit card deposits, including Visa, Mastercard, and Amex. Ewallets and direct banking options are available as well. Right now, BetOnline is offering up to $900 in bonus money for new customers.
2/ JustBet.cx – JustBet isn’t the best at anything, but solid overall. They offer incremental odds that BetOnline and Bovada don’t offer, which often translates into the best prices. For example, BetOnline and Bovada might have a team at +135, while JustBet has them at +138. In the long run, these small advantages can really add up. Serious NFL bettors need to have a funded account here. JustBet posts their lines after BetOnline, and before Bovada. Like everywhere, point spreads and over/under odds go up first, but money lines are posted quickly after. At the time of this writing, they have all of their Saints vs 49ers lines posted.
3/ Bovada.lv – The Bovada Sportsbook only accepts US bettors. Bovada is the new name for Bodog in the United States, which is one of the most reputable sportsbooks in the world. Bovada is best at prop bets, live betting, and futures. Their NFL futures odds are generally the best for teams we actually want to bet on. Instead of giving greater odds for teams unlikely to win, Bovada gives us greater odds for teams we actually like for Conference and Super Bowl Championships. They also have the widest selection of prop bets, and the best live betting interface of all US friendly betting sites. Live bets start for just $1, and hundreds of bets can be made during each playoff game. A lot of fun for very little money. Right now, Bovada has their Niners vs Saints point spread and over/under odds posted, but we’re still waiting for their money line.
The downside for Bovada is that they post their NFL betting lines later than BetOnline and JustBet, which can translate into lost value versus the early lines at BetOnline and Justbet. Their 49ers-Saints betting lines for the spread and over/under went up about a day after BetOnline and JustBet posted theirs. Their money lines were a few days later.