Major League Baseball Season Team Win Totals

The odds below are for the predicted total wins by each MLB team. It’s a simple over/under bet where the bettor decides if the team will record more wins than the posted total, or fewer wins. A fun thing about this bet is that unlike a seasonal futures bet, we can wager on every team if we want to. If you’re an MLB baseball fanatic who pays close attention to the game, your insight can make you some money. For odds on MLB games, please visit our baseball lines page for current odds.

Over/Under Odds for the MLB Season: Team Win Totals

How to Bet on Team Win Totals

For betting on season win totals, I look for numbers that stand out, rather than betting on every team. When I see a team that’s looks like they’re being over or under estimated, that’s when I place a bet. I also tend to place bets on exceptionally low or exceptionally high win totals, because anything can happen in MLB baseball. When a team is expected to win a very high number of games, that gives them little room for error. Injuries to one or two key players can easily be the difference of losing a bet on the over.

The same can be said for teams who are expected to win a very low number of games. In many cases, the team will have to be terrible for them to win fewer than the latest win total. However, if a rookie steps up, a pitcher has a career year, or the team happens to gel nicely, they can more easily cover an over.

How many times have we seen a team that was supposed to be terrible come up and surprise us with a good season? How many times do we see a team that was supposed to win it all disappoint us? It happens every year, and I’m looking for those anomalies.

To make my predictions for MLB team win totals each year, of course I look at last years numbers, and player changes that were made during the off-season. Keep in mind that sports betting sites are looking to create even betting on the over/under, making their money off the vig. This means that the over/under is based on how the betting public views each team, not on the experts predictions. For example, the Yankees have a huge following, and everyone expects them to win a lot of games every year. This type of situation can create a win total that is higher than it should be. When there is more betting on the over, the sports betting sites raise the win total. This means we should be looking for opportunities to bet the under on the most popular teams.

For underdogs and teams with smaller fan bases, I look for opportunities to bet the over. This is because those who are betting high overs on favorites tend to think the other teams will win fewer games, bringing the down their win totals. This creates a better opportunity to bet the over.

I also tend to bet the under on teams who had players with strangely big numbers in the previous season. If a pitcher who’s been in the league for 5-6 years suddenly has a breakout season, MLB fans expect them to repeat those numbers. More often than not however, the player comes back to reality the following season. Once a player has a standout season, teams watch more tape on them, trying to find a way to beat them. Once a weakness is found, it doesn’t take long for that to get around the league.

Remember, you only have to beat the over/under on seasonal win totals by one game. Bets on team win totals are about the details, and the likelihoods. If it is unlikely that a player will play better than he did last season, take him down a notch. If it’s unlikely he’ll play worse, you might expect more out of him.

Other Things to Consider Before Placing a Wager

  • Is a team filled with old or injury-prone players? Teams like these are more likely to win fewer games than they did in the previous season.
  • Did a team have a lot of rookies last year who are still on the team this year? If so, these players are likely to improve this season.
  • Always look at the changes to the pitching staff from year to year. How did the closer (s) do last season? Should they improve their blown-save stats this year?
  • What types of coaching changes were made? Often times, a new hitting coach will see something wrong with a players swing and fix it, or a new pitching coach will improve a pitchers mechanics.
  • Which teams are likely to make aggressive trades during the season? If a team needs to fill a spot or two, do they have the money and trade-bait to get the players they need? Have they shown the ability to make these trades in the past? Is a team likely to unload a star for a bunch of low-paid rookies? All of these things can make a big impact on how a team finishes the regular season.
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