Home Run Derby Odds & Predictions

We’ll update this post when we get closer to the 2011 Home Run Derby. The Home Run Derby will be held on July 11th, 2011 at Chase Field, home of the Arizona Diamondbacks. The 82nd MLB All-Star Game will be held the following day, July 12th.

Below is our post from 2010 Home Run Derby. Visit the Sports Betting Lines homepage for the latest MLB baseball odds.

The 2010 Home Run Derby will take place tonight (July 12th) at 8:00 PM EST in Anaheim. There has been a lot of speculation about whether or not certain hitters in this year’s derby deserved their invite. For instance, many people can’t believe that Nick Swisher was invited to the derby instead of Jose Bautista, who leads all of Major League Baseball in home runs this season.

Another surprise to most baseball fans is the fact many of the big name sluggers aren’t taking part in the 2010 Home Run Derby. Many players didn’t want to participate in this year’s derby because they don’t want to cause any damage to their swing. Last year Prince Fielder ended up winning the derby, but he won’t be back this year and neither will other big names such as Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Josh Hamilton and Joey Votto. Those are some huge fan-favorites we’ll be missing.

Whoever picked out this year’s batters did a terrible job in my opinion, but let’s hope that doesn’t hurt the derby tonight. There are still plenty of capable hitters in the Home Run Derby, but most of them don’t have any derby experience. There will be five batters that will be playing in their first Home Run Derby including Vernon Wells, Nick Swisher, Corey Hart, Chris Young and Hanley Ramirez.

David Ortiz will be the most experienced batter in the box tonight and it should be interesting to see if the experience he has comes into play in the later rounds. The two other batters in the derby are Matt Holliday and Miguel Cabrera who’ll both be playing in the second Home Run Derby of their career.

2010 Home Run Derby Odds

  • Miguel Cabrera +250
  • Matt Holliday +300
  • David Ortiz +300
  • Nick Swisher +500
  • Corey Hart +500
  • Vernon Wells +650
  • Hanley Ramirez +800
  • Chris Young +1200

2010 Home Run Derby Predictions

With so many inexperienced batters in this year’s Home Run Derby, it’s going to be difficult to pinpoint a winner. Right away I’d eliminate Hanley Ramirez, Chris Young and Nick Swisher from my list, as I can’t see them winning the Home Run Derby tonight. I think both David Ortiz and Vernon Wells have a great shot at making it out of the first round, but I can’t see either one of these two winning tonight either.

That leaves us with only a few options left including Cabrera, Holliday and Hart. I really think that Hart has a great shot tonight at surprising a lot of people and at +500 there is some excellent value here. Hart is tied in sixth place right now in HR’s with Pujols at 21 apiece, which is only 4 HR’s behind the league leader, Jose Bautista.

Holliday has some experience in the derby, but he only has 16 HR’s this year and I don’t think he’s going to be in the final round although he should make it through the first round. Also, Holliday hits with raw power rather than a smooth swing. Most Home Run Derby winners are the guys with sweet swings which find a groove, this isn’t the way Holliday hits.

Although the public is going to be on Cabrera tonight, I really see him winning the derby. He is tied for second right now in the MLB with 22 HR’s and he also has derby experience. If you’re only going to wager on one hitter then I’d bet on Cabrera, but if you’re like me you may want to bet on two batters. I’m laying 2 units on Cabrera tonight and a single unit on Hart because I have a gut feeling he’s going to do great tonight.

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