Broncos vs. Patriots Betting Line

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Home: New England Patriots (13-3 overall, 7-1 at home)
Away: Denver Broncos (8-8 overall, 5-3 on the road)
What: AFC Divisional Playoffs
When: Saturday, January 14, 2012. 8:00 pm ET

If someone told you the Denver Broncos would start the 2011 – 2012 NFL season 1-4, then cut their starting QB in favor of a guy who would finish the regular season with a 46.5% completion ratio, how would you expect them to finish the season? Do those numbers translate into an AFC West division championship, a win over the vaunted Steelers in the Wild Card round, and a meeting with the New England Patriots in the divisional round? Wow, it’s been some season for the Broncos.

Before we dissect this game, lets take a look at the latest Broncos vs. Patriots lines for this AFC Divisional Playoff game.

Broncos vs. Patriots Lines: 2011 – 2012 AFC Divisional Playoffs

Broncos – Patriots Betting Line Update: As of 9:15am Saturday morning, the only line that has changed recently is the money line at BetOnline. The Broncos money line has gone from +595 to +560, and the Patriots money line has gone from -755 to -720. It looks like Tebow Mania is starting to kick in, and it’ll be interesting to see what happens to the rest of the Broncos vs Patriots betting lines as we get closer to the start of the game.

The Broncos – Patriots point spread has been stuck on 13.5 points since they opened at BetOnline and JustBet. With most of America starting to wake up now, the spread should see some movement soon. I could be wrong, but I’m guessing the public will bet the Broncos point spread heavy. If I’m right, those who want to bet on the Broncos point spread would be smart to get their bets in now, before the spread goes in the other direction. Those who want to bet on the Patriots point spread would be smarter to wait. Like I said, I could be wrong, so please make your own decisions.

The Broncos vs Patriots over/under opened at 50.5 early in the week, and went down to 50 a couple of days ago. As mentioned below, I’m taking the over on this game. The Patriots can score on anyone, and the Broncos might put up some decent points against the Patriots defense as well. The Broncos ability to get it in the end zone is really the key for this wager, but this weak Patriots defense is likely to get hit for 20+ points.

We’ll continue to update this post with all of the latest Broncos – Patriots betting odds as they change throughout the day, with our betting recommendations as well. This game is likely to get the heaviest betting action to this point in the NFL season, and the odds should start moving soon.

The odds chart above will continue to be updated as well, with the latest Broncos vs Patriots spread, money line, and over under odds. For our predictions and more information about this matchup, scroll down this page.

Broncos vs. Patriots Odds

The latest Broncos vs. Patriots odds have the Patriots favored by almost 2 touchdowns (+13.5 -110), and roughly 1 TD more than they were favored in week 15. However, that game was played in Denver, while this one is in New England. The Patriots rarely lose at home, and rarely lose to teams they ‘should’ beat. But, this is Tim Tebow they’re going against, a guy who loves to prove people wrong.

This game is going to get a ton of betting action, and it will be interesting to see how the lines move during the week. Everyone is going to want to take the Patriots to win outright, but the money line may not provide enough value for serious bettors. The money lines haven’t been posted yet, but we’ll add them to the odds chart above once they are.

I think we’ll see an extra 1 to 1.5 points added to the over/under before the week ends. Once people start thinking about the weak New England defense, they may give the Broncos credit for more points than they are right now.

Broncos at Patriots Point Spread Prediction

Currently, the Patriots point spread is -13.5 (-110) at BetOnline. The Broncos point spread is +13.5 (-110) at BetOnline as well. JustBet is offering the same point spread.

I’m picking the Denver Broncos to cover the point spread in this game. I think they’ll be able to score against the Patriots defense, and a loose Tebow could translate into more points than many will expect. See below for complete analysis.

The odds chart above will continue to be updated during the week, but this written content may not. Refer to the odds chart above, or visit our NFL betting lines page for the latest Patriots vs. Broncos point spread.

Broncos vs. Patriots Money Line

Based on what most professional handicappers have predicted the Broncos chances to win, the value right now is on the Patriots. Most say the Patriots should win this game 80-85% of the time, which means that the current Patriots money line of -750 at JustBet is the way to go.

Based on a 15-20% chance to win, the Broncos money line isn’t providing value at +595. I suspect Tebow Mania will create heavier betting on the Broncos regardless of the money line, keeping the value on the Patriots. If the Broncos vs. Patriots money lines stay in the neighborhood they’re at now, those who want to bet on the Broncos would be better of sticking with the spread.

If you disagree with the handicappers and think the Broncos have a better shot to win this game, the best Broncos money line is +595 at BetOnline.

We’ll continue to update the Patriots vs. Broncos money lines in the chart above, but you can view all of the latest NFL lines on our homepage.

Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots Over/Under Odds

Currently, the Broncos vs Patriots over/under is 50 (-110) on either side at BetOnline, and JustBet.

I’m taking the over of 50 (-110) at BetOnline. The Patriots could score 30-40 on their own, and I like the matchup of the Broncos vs. the Patriots secondary. With the Broncos running game setting up the pass against the Patriots, the Denver WR’s and TE’s could find plenty of chances to get open.

Broncos vs. Patriots Game Analysis & Betting Tips

No team has confused NFL handicappers this year like the Denver Broncos have. No matter how much research we do, it might be more important that we get inside the heads of the Broncos players, and consider their motivation as much as the numbers. Player attitudes are one of those important intangibles that bettors tend to forget about when making their bets. In this game, I think it’s important for bettors to consider where the Broncos motivation is coming from, and think about how that might affect their ability to cover the point spread.

With consideration to the odds on this game, I think we have to look at things like motivation, pressure, and heart, as much as the stats or player matchups. Tim Tebow seems to rise to the occasion. When people doubt him is when he seems to be at his best. During that incredible streak in the regular season, it seemed as if Tebow was playing better when the pressure was on him. At this point, it could be more accurate to say that he was responding to the doubts, rather than the pressure.

In the Wild Card game against the Steelers, reports from camp were that the Broncos looked looser than they had in weeks. The players seemed to be feeling less pressure, and more of a ‘nothing to lose’ type of attitude. Going into this game against the New England Patriots, they certainly have nothing to lose, while everyone continues to doubt Tebow’s ability to beat them. Could this translate into another big game by the Broncos?

The problem is, no matter how well Tim Tebow & the Broncos play, will it be enough to cover the point spread? The New England Patriots beat you with a relentless offense that is hard to keep up with. Opponents feel like they have to score on every drive, otherwise the game can get out of reach. For the Broncos, the good news is that the Patriots defense is very weak in certain areas – areas they could potentially expose.

The Denver Broncos running game will be able to set the stage for the passing game. If Tebow continues to ‘pull the trigger’ as John Elway told him to against the Steelers, the Broncos receivers could put some points on the board. With a point spread of 13.5, the Broncos have a good chance to cover.


* The article below was our Broncos vs. Patriots matchup post for the week 15 game of the 2011 – 2012 NFL season. It was written at the height of the ‘how are the Broncos winning’ stage. We’re leaving it posted for reference. Fwiw, the Patriots won this game 41-23.

Home: Denver Broncos (8-5 overall, 3-3 at home)
Away: New England Patriots (10-3 overall, 5-2 on the road)
When: Week 15. 4:15 pm ET. Sunday, December 18, 2011.

**WARNING: Reader assumes all responsibility for any advice they take from this article. The writer freely admits he could be completely wrong and miss his predictions by four touchdowns and a field goal.

Anyone who correctly predicts the outcome of this game between the New England Patriots & Denver Broncos will brag for weeks, tell you how to fix your lawn mower, your broken marriage, and explain in great detail why the tips of grass point north in the south and south in the north. You WILL be his bitch, so I recommend a strict “hear no evil, speak no evil” policy when it comes to discussing this game with friends.

Here we go folks, the best QB in the NFL against the most compelling player in the 2011 – 2012 NFL season. Unless you’re in direct communication with Tim Tebow’s God, this game is impossible to predict. Yes, we know the Patriots are a better team, don’t we? We know the Broncos could get blown out in the first three quarters, right? Tom Brady and his high-flying offense will put this one away by the end of the first half, won’t he? Humbled by the last several weeks of ‘Tebow Time’, I am now but a small man who knows he knows nothing. In this case, ignorance might be the key to a winning ticket.

Below are the latest New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos betting lines for this week 15, Sunday afternoon matchup.

Broncos Versus Patriots Analysis & Prediction

For this Broncos vs. Patriots matchup, it might be better to throw out that list of stats, forget about player matchups, and refrain from using our brains. For the hell of it, we’ll get into a few of the ‘should happens’, but take it with a grain of salt because we all know that nothing about this Broncos team makes any sense.

In theory, the way the Broncos use their offense could be the key to whether or not they cover the spread. If they try to take advantage of the awful Patriots secondary by passing the ball too much, they could allow Brady too many chances to get on the field. I think it’s important that the Broncos continue to run the ball in this game, and eat as much of the clock as they can. It will be tempting to go after the big plays against the Patriots ‘D’, but I don’t think this is a winning strategy for the Broncos.

The Denver Broncos defense has been fantastic in recent weeks, an aspect that has gotten lost in all of the Tim Tebow talk. Stud CB Champ Bailey and Tim Tebow have some sort of bromance going on, and I think Champ could have his best game of the season. The way Brady will be letting it fly, keeping him off the field, plus a turnover or two caused by the Broncos defense could go a long way towards keeping this close late into the game. If they can keep it close, anything can happen.

The Broncos defense will be pumped for this game, looking for opportunities to help their offense. As great as he is, Von Miller will be less effective at pressuring the quick-release of Tom Brady than he is against most NFL QB’s. This could actually work into the Broncos hands because they should be able to use Miller in other ways, like helping to stop the short pass and running game.

Rob Gronkowski has been a beast this season, and the Broncos secondary will need to be effective against him. He’ll get his completions, but if they can limit him to 70-80 yards and control the middle of the field, the Broncos have a chance.

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Point Spread

The Patriots vs. Broncos point spread opened at 6 points (-110), and the line has moved in favor of those taking the Broncos.

Lets be honest, predicting this game against the spread is as tough as it’s been all season. Would you be shocked if the Patriots won by 14 points? Would you be shocked if they won by 1 point? Would you be shocked if the Broncos win by a late field goal? None of these outcomes would shock me, so I’m going to take the points with the Broncos at home.

Right now, we can get the Denver Broncos +9 (-125) at BetOnline, or +7.5 (-105) at JustBet. For twenty cents, I’m going to take the conservative route and the extra 1.5 points. So, I’ve got the Broncos +9 (-125) at BetOnline on the point spread.

If you prefer giving up the points on the Patriots you can get them at >-9 (+105) at BetOnline, or -7.5 (-115) at JustBet.

For the latest Broncos vs. Patriots point spread, visit the sports betting lines homepage.

Patriots vs. Broncos Money Line

I expect the New England Patriots to win this outright, but the tough Broncos defense gives them a chance. Also, if the Broncos run, run, run, there is a chance they could keep it close enough for Tebow Time late in the game. At +315 at BetOnline, I see value on the Broncos money line. Do the Broncos win this game one out of four times? I think they do. They’re playing at home where the crowd plays a part in the Tebow magic, and I think this is worth a small play.

If you prefer, the best Patriots money line right now is -370 at JustBet.

Broncos vs. Patriots Over/Under Betting Odds

The latest Patriots vs. Broncos over/under is 47 (-110) on either side at BetOnline and JustBet.

Who knows what to expect in this game, other than Tom Brady getting into the end zone a few times? I can see this game being a blowout where the Patriots score 35+, and I can see it being fairly close, at something like 27-24. Either way it goes, I think the play here is on the over, hoping the Broncos can do their part.

I’m taking the over of 47 (-110) at BetOnline.

New England Patriots / Denver Broncos Live Betting

If you weren’t aware, Bovada Sportsbook is the new name for Bodog in the United States. If you already had an account at Bodog, your money and your account have been moved to Bovada.

Bovada is featuring this Patriots @ Broncos game for live betting on Sunday. They have a great live betting interface, with hundreds of prop bets that will be offered during the game. Live bets have a minimum wager amount of just $1, and bettors can wager on almost anything they can think of. Bets can be placed on the results of every possession during the game, tons of player and team props, as well as changing lines for final game results. If you haven’t tried NFL live betting yet, check it out at Bovada. Serious fun for not a lot of money.

Tom Brady vs. Tim Tebow

No, no, no…you didn’t really think we’d compare these guys did you? Considering that Tom Brady is one of the best NFL QB’s of all time, and Tim Tebow has taken control of the ESPN Network for the last two months, I don’t think there’s anything new I can offer.

The only thing to be said about this game is that these two guys will make it fun to watch. The artistry & precision of Tom Brady, and the heart of Tim Tebow makes this a very compelling game for NFL fans. If you can’t enjoy this game, you can’t enjoy football.

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One Response to “Broncos vs. Patriots Betting Line”

  1. vegas7-11 says:

    Jesus cant help Tebow this time around. Steelers are dirty anyway when it comes to shaving points and gambling spreads and they also underestimated and disrespected a playoff team that can win on any given Sunday. Not this time though. The Patriots and their coach will take the Jesus Quarterback seriously, have a great game plan ready and keep scoring until the clock runs out with no mercy. 45-17 Patriots!

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