Ravens vs. Patriots Money Line

Home: New England Patriots (13-3 overall, 7-1 at home)
Away: Baltimore Ravens (12-4 overall, 4-4 on the road)
What: AFC Conference Championship
When: Sunday, Jan. 22, 2012 at 3:00pm ET

Below are the latest Ravens vs. Patriots money lines for their January 22, 2012 AFC Conference Championship matchup.

Ravens Money Line

At the time this is being written, the best Ravens money line is +285 at Sports Interaction.

Personally, I’m not seeing value on the Baltimore Ravens money line. I think this is the worst possible matchup for the Ravens at this point, going against a monster offense who almost never loses at home. All of the Ravens losses during the 2011 – 2012 regular season came on the road, against much weaker teams. See my Ravens vs. Patriots money line prediction below for explanation.

Patriots Money Line

The best Patriots money line is -340 at Sports Interaction The Patriots are ridiculously tough at home, and I’m seeing value at these odds. Their defense gives up fewer points than most people realize, and their offense is good for 27-45 in almost any matchup. See below for complete analysis & money line prediction.

Patriots vs. Ravens Money Line Prediction

When we’re making a money line prediction, it’s all about value. How does a teams chances to win compare to the odds we can get on them? This Patriots vs. Ravens money line prediction is based on the odds at the time this article is being written.

The New England Patriots are too dominant at home to pick the Ravens on the money line. At 23-1 at home since the beginning of the 2009-2010 regular season, the Patriots have more than proven their ability to win at home. On top of that, the Ravens were much worse on the road (4-4) than at home (8-0) this year. Their road losses were against teams who combined for a season record of 29-35.

To make things worse for the Ravens, the New England Patriots lead the AFC with a +17 turnover ratio. In comparison, the Ravens went +2 on the season. I’ve picked the Patriots to cover the spread, due largely in part to the Patriots greater ability to cause turnovers. Lardarius Webb and Ed Reed won’t be able to read where Brady is going as well as they can with most QB’s, and I expect the Patriots to win the turnover battle by +1 or better. With that said, I think the Patriots can lose the turnover battle by -1 (or possibly -2) and still be effective enough offensively to win the game.

The New England Patriots haven’t faced a defense this good in a long time, but they’ve scored 31-49 points in 8 of their last 9 games, and 27 in the ninth game. While everyone is busy talking about how terrible the Patriots defense is, they only allowed 21.4 points per game overall during the regular season. At home, they only gave up 19.3 points per game – which is better than average. As you know, yards don’t count on the scoreboard.

Home field advantage is even greater during the playoffs, which translates into a very tough challenge for the Ravens. Tom Brady is coming off of a 6 TD game, with the best selection of offensive weapons in the NFL. Better yet, the Patriots offense showed some grit against the Broncos last week, and they should be playing confidently this week as well.

Of course the Ravens have a shot, but the Patriots are so hard to beat at home that -340 looks like a deal against anyone. Because they’re playing at home, I think the Patriots win this game 78-82% of the time, which means we have value at -340.

Ravens @ Patriots Money Line Prediction: Patriots -340 at Sports Interaction.

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