Super Bowl Over/Under
After opening at 55.5, the 2012 Super Bowl over/under is now down to 54 at both of our recommended sports betting sites. I figured the over/under would come down from where it opened, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes down another 1/2 – 1 point before game time.
At 54 points, the over/under still seems a bit high. However, it’s the Super Bowl, and the public tends to bet on what they want to happen, rather than what should happen. It looks like sharps have been betting the under while the total was high, bringing it down to where we are now. We might see the total drop a bit more, then go back up as the public brings in heavier volume Friday & Saturday.
As the 2012 Super Bowl over/under odds change, so will the chart below. To place a bet, click on any of the odds links or sportsbook logos.
2012 Super Bowl Over/Under Odds
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| Giants @ Patriots |
Super Bowl Over/Under Stats
New England Patriots: 2011 – 2012
Regular Season, Points For: 32.1 PPG
Regular Season, Points Against: 21.4 PPG
Regular Season Average Total: 53.5 PPG
Playoffs, Points For: 34.0 PPG
Playoffs, Points Against: 15.0 PPG
Playoffs, Average Total: 49 PPG
New York Giants: 2011 – 2012
Regular Season, Points For: 24.6
Regular Season, Points Against: 25.0 PPG
Regular Season Average Total: 49.6 PPG
Playoffs, Points For: 27.0 PPG
Playoffs, Points Against: 13.0 PPG
Playoffs, Average Total: 40.0 PPG
2012 Super Bowl Over/Under Prediction
From a bettors perspective, the beauty of the Super Bowl is that everyone is publishing their predictions. The downside is, there isn’t much that hasn’t been said. Everyone knows about the Patriots offense. Everyone knows about the strong defensive play of the Giants in recent weeks. Like every NFL game, the difference of winning or losing an over/under bet can come down to one or two key plays (possibly flukey).
Both teams averaged lower totals than this Super Bowl over/under, currently at 54 points. They’ve both averaged lower totals during the playoffs as well. Also, the NY Giants defense has improved in recent weeks, giving up just 13 PPG during the playoffs.
Offensively, both have done enough during the playoffs to justify this total. However, the defenses clearly justify an under bet. Personally, I think this bet goes along with who you’re predicting to win the game.
If you’re taking the Patriots, you should probably take the over. Theoretically, the Giants defense has played well enough to say it would take some level of breakdown for the Patriots to win. Also, the Patriots defense led the AFC with 23 INT’s during the regular season, which could translate into Brady having more time to utilize all of his weapons. If the Patriots win the turnover battle, you have to figure they’ll make the most of it. This means we could see a high scoring game where the Patriots account for 30+ on their own.
If you’re predicting the New York Giants to win, I think it makes more sense to pick the under. The Patriots defense isn’t as bad as everyone made it sound during the regular season. Yeah, they give up a ton of yards, but those yards haven’t translated into huge point totals. The idea here is that we expect less out of the Giants offense (not a lot less, but less), and more from their defense. This would likely mean that a Giants win would be a lower scoring game.
Personally, I like the NY Giants to win Super Bowl 46. I think their defense will hold the Patriots to a range of 23-27 points. Like everyone, I think this will be a close game, and I’m picking the Giants to win by a field goal or less. This means a score in the range of 24-23 up to 30-27. The range in totals comes to 47-57, giving us more winning unders. I’m betting under 54 at
Sports Interaction.
If you’re going with my Super Bowl over/under prediction, lets hope the Giants win the flukey-play battle, and not the Patriots. The cliche is that NFL games favor the team who wins the turnover battle. That could easily be the case in Super Bowl 46 as well, but it’s the flukey plays I’m more concerned about in this one.
2011 Super Bowl Over/Under Prediction
While the 2011 Super Bowl has the makings for a high scoring game (turf instead of grass, and effective offenses), I’m betting the under. I’ve already bet under 45.5 (-110) , which I love because I’ll win a 24-21 or 27-18 game.
Pittsburgh only gave up 14.5 PPG this season while the Packers gave up just 15 PPG – good for 1st and 2nd in the NFL respectively. Both defenses are capable of shutting down the opposition’s offense, but they could also force turnovers and put points on the board.
If Aaron Rodgers is able to air out the ball downfield and find holes in the “Steel Curtain”, this game could soar past the over. If the Pittsburgh Steelers can limit the Packers to short passing plays and long third downs, the game could be settled by the field goal kickers, which is the way I’m leaning. The Green Bay Packers ranked 18th in the NFL in stopping the run during the regular season, so Mendenhall should be able to run the clock and keep the scoring limited.
With the #1 and #2 defenses in points allowed per game, it’s hard to not bet the under. I’ll gladly take under 45 points, as I thought the total would be a bit lower anyway. Rodgers could hurt us, but I’m confident the Steelers defense will be ready for war come Super Bowl Sunday.
For all of the latest odds, check out our page with the 2012 Super Bowl betting lines from the Bodog Sportsbook.
