Packers vs. Lions Betting Line

By admin · Filed Under Free Picks, NFL Football Leave a Comment 

Home: Green Bay Packers (14-1 overall, 7-0 at home)
Away: Detroit Lions (10-5 overall, 5-2 on the road)
When: Week 17. Sunday, January 1, 2012 at 1:00pm ET
TV: FOX

The Green Bay Packers have locked up the #1 seed in the NFC, but the Detroit Lions are looking to hold onto their 5th seed. Detroit lost to the Falcons in week 7, and a win guarantees that they won’t swap spots with Atlanta. With the Saints in the #3 seed, and the Giants currently in the #4 seed, of course the Lions want to stay where they are (projected not to play the Saints). Since Green Bay is set for the playoffs, they’re expected to be resting many of their starters. As a result, the Lions come in as favorites on the road against the Packers.

Lions vs. Packers: Week 17

* The odds listed above are current for week 17 of the 2011-2012 NFL season. The article below was written for a previous matchup between the Lions & Packers. We’re leaving it up for reference. Fwiw, the Packers won that game 27-15 in Detroit.

Home: Detroit Lions (7-3 overall, 3-2 at home)
Away: Green Bay Packers (10-0 overall, 5-0 on the road)
When: Week 12. Thanksgiving Day. Thursday November 24, 2011 at 12:30pm ET
TV: FOX

The first Thanksgiving Day NFL game is this matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. This is a great way to start off the day, with the top teams in the NFC North. If the 2011 NFL season ended today, the Packers would go straight to the NFC Divisional Round, while the Lions would be one of the Wild Cards. At 7-3, the Lions need to keep winning games to keep their Wild Card position, while the undefeated Packers are looking to keep their perfect season alive.

Latest Packers at Lions Betting Lines: Week 12, 2011

Below are the latest Packers vs. Lions betting lines for this 2011 Thanksgiving Day matchup. If you’d like to bet on this game, BetOnline.com accepts US bettors and Visa, Mastercard, & Amex credit cards for deposits. JustBet also accepts US bettors and Visa credit cards for deposits. To place a bet, click on any of the sportsbook logos or odds links below.

* This game has ended, so the odds have been removed. See chart above for the latest Lions vs. Packers odds for week 17.

Lions vs. Packers Thanksgiving Day Analysis & Prediction

The Detroit Lions had a huge comeback win against the Carolina Panthers in week 11, led by QB Matthew Stafford who went 28 of 36, with 335 yards and 5 TD’s. Runningback Kevin Smith had a big day as well, rushing for 140 yards and 2 TD’s on just 16 carries. Stafford’s 5 TD’s were distributed amongst 5 different receivers, and 7 different receivers caught 2+ passes apiece. Detroits defense also intercepted Cam Newton four times on their way to the 49-35 win.

QB Matt Stafford has a finger injury, but is listed as ‘probable’ for Thursday. Expect him to play. Runningback Jahvid Best did not practice on Tuesday, and will not be playing.

The Green Bay Packers are the Green Bay Packers, what else really needs to be said? They’re the best team in the NFL right now, arguably better than they were when they won the Super Bowl last year. The Packers played host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 11, winning the game 35-26 behind another solid game behind Aaron Rodgers.

Despite being 30th in the NFL in total yards allowed, the Green Bay defense is only giving up 21.2 points per game. – good for 15th in the NFL. The only defense that gives up more passing yards per game are the New England Patriots, but they’ve also recorded 19 INT’s and an are +12 overall in takeaways/giveaways.

The reason the Packers are 10-0 instead of 5-5 heading into week 12 is their offense, which averages a whopping 35.5 points per game. When your offense is this good, your defense doesn’t have to be great.

What makes this game interesting is that Detroit has one of the best passing defenses in the NFL, but one of the worst rushing defenses. Green Bay doesn’t have much of a rushing offense, but a huge passing offense. I expect the Packers to win this game, but it could be closer than many expect. I’m expecting a Packers win, but I don’t think they’ll cover the spread.

* Interesting sidenote that means nothing: The last time the Detroit Lions won on Thanksgiving Day was in 2003 when they beat….the Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Point Spread

This is a tricky game to pick. The Lions defense matches up well against the Packers offense, and it will come down to have effective they can be. Playing at home on Thanksgiving Day with the whole country watching, the Lions defense is going to be pumped for the chance to hand the Packers their first loss. Stafford should be able to get in the end zone against the Packers defense, keeping it close. I’m not picking them to win, but I do expect this to be a close game – in the range of 3-4 points. The latest Lions vs. Packers point spread is floating around 6-7 depending on the sportsbook.

The Packers are currently favored at -6 (-110) at BetOnline, and -7 (Even) at Bovada. We can get the Lions +6 (-110) at BetOnline, or +7 (-120) at Bovada.

I’m going to bet on the Detroit Lions +7 (-120) at Bovada.

Packers vs. Lions Money Line

This game looks ripe for a potential upset, with the Lions playing at home on Thanksgiving Day when everyone will be watching. The latest Packers vs. Lions money line is -265 for the Packers, and +225 for the Lions. While I expect the Packers to win a close game, +225 on the Lions is pretty attractive.

Under different circumstances, I’d prefer to see something like +255 to +275, but Ndamukong Suh and the Lions defense should be more motivated than ever. I’m willing to put a little money on the line because I think there is some value at +225.

I’m going to place a small bet on the Detroit Lions money line at +225 at BetOnline.

For those who disagree with me, you can get -265 on the Packers money line at the BetOnline Sportsbook. I’m not crazy about -265, but I couldn’t blame anyone for disagreeing with me.

At the time of this writing, the Bovada Sportsbook hasn’t posted their Packers vs. Lions money lines. We’ll update the chart above when they post their money lines.

Lions vs. Packers Over/Under Betting Odds

The Lions vs. Packers over/under is currently 56 (-110) on either side at BetOnline. Bovada hasn’t posted their over/under odds yet. I’m expecting a game in the range of 27-23 up to 31-27, for a Packers win. This gives us a range of 50 to 58 total points, so I see more potential for this one to go under. Once again, it’ll come down to the Detroit Lions defense – how effective they can be at stopping the Packers offense.

Nothing will shock me in this game because I can see almost any scenario playing out. I wouldn’t be surprised if the total is 65, and I wouldn’t be surprised if its 45. However, we have to try to predict the most likely scenario, and hope that is the one that actually happens. So, I’m going to bet on the under at 56 (-110) at BetOnline.

Bet on Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

As mentioned above, I’m going to take the +7 points (-120) at Bovada on the Detroit Lions point spread, and place a small bet on the Lions money line as well. I see value at +225, mainly because of the situation.

The Lions haven’t played well on Thanksgiving Day in recent years, but this is a completely different team. This team is getting used to winning, and they have more to gain than they have to lose. They’re playing at home on national television when everyone will be watching. Causing the first Packers loss of the season would make a huge statement, and I think they have a good shot at the win.

For the over/under, I’m going to bet on the under at 56 (-110) at BetOnline. It follows with my thoughts on the Lions defense, that they’ll do a better job of containing Arron Rodgers than the rest of the Packers opponents have done so far this year.

Leave a Reply